Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. INTERMITTENT C-CLASS ACTIVITY
OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C7 AT 1003Z FROM REGION 8524 (N21W55).
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS HAMPERED GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS OF THIS EVENT, IT
WAS SEEN FROM SPACE BY SOHO. OTHER C-CLASS ACTIVITY ORIGINATED IN
REGIONS 8525 (N17E34) AND NEARBY REGION 8527 (N27E38). TWO NEW
REGIONS, 8529 (S13E10) AND 8530 (N16E53) WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL. REGIONS 8525 AND 8524 SHOULD PRODUCE C-CLASS
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH THE MOST DISTURBED
TIMES RELATED TO NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AT ACE IS
STILL ABOVE 500 KM/S, INDICATIVE OF THE HIGH SPEED STREAM AFFECTING
THE MAGNETOSPHERE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE AGAIN HIGH, PASSING THAT THRESHOLD
AT ABOUT 0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE CME OF APRIL
29 MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 03 MAY to 05 MAY
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 MAY 136 Predicted 03 MAY-05 MAY 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 02 MAY 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY 015/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY 015/012-015/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 MAY to 05 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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