Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 April 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 APR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED LONG DURATION C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 15/0239Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 13 APRIL.
III. Event Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 APR 122
  Predicted    16 APR-18 APR  118/115/112
  90 Day Mean        15 APR 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm 20%20%10%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm 25%25%10%
Major-severe storm 15%15%05%

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