Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 April 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 APR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
LONG DURATION C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 15/0239Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON
13 APRIL.
III. Event Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 APR 122 Predicted 16 APR-18 APR 118/115/112 90 Day Mean 15 APR 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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