Viewing archive of Monday, 5 April 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 APR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N21E49) WAS THE
MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE SUN, PRODUCING A C1/SF X-RAY EVENT AT
05/0831UT. REGION 8506 (S26W28) HAS DEVELOPED INTO A
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. THIS REGION HOWEVER, HAS
SHOWN VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ONE NEW REGION WAS
NUMBERED, 8509 LOCATED AT (N11E51).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8506 AND 8508 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE
CONDITIONS REPORTED 05/0600-1200UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 05/1420UT AND
REMAINED ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD DUE TO AN ELONGATED
CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOWTHWEST QUADRANT.
III. Event Probabilities 06 APR to 08 APR
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 APR 133 Predicted 06 APR-08 APR 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 05 APR 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR 013/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR 015/020-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 APR to 08 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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