Viewing archive of Monday, 5 April 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 APR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N21E49) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE SUN, PRODUCING A C1/SF X-RAY EVENT AT 05/0831UT. REGION 8506 (S26W28) HAS DEVELOPED INTO A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. THIS REGION HOWEVER, HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED, 8509 LOCATED AT (N11E51).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8506 AND 8508 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS REPORTED 05/0600-1200UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 05/1420UT AND REMAINED ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD DUE TO AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOWTHWEST QUADRANT.
III. Event Probabilities 06 APR to 08 APR
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 APR 133
  Predicted   06 APR-08 APR  135/140/145
  90 Day Mean        05 APR 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR  013/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR  015/020-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 APR to 08 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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