Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 April 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 APR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES WERE
OBSERVED SINCE YESTERDAY, NONE OF WHICH WERE ABOVE A C3 X-RAY LEVEL.
REGION 8504 (S28E11) DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD.
NEW REGIONS 8506 (S26W02), 8507 (N11E58), AND 8508 (N18E79) WERE
NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8508 APPEARS TO BE THE RETURN OF OLD REGION
8485, THE PRODUCER OF FIVE M-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8504, 8506, AND 8508 ARE EXHIBITING SPORADIC
SURGING AND BRIGHTENING. EACH OF THESE REGIONS MAY DEVELOP THE
CAPABILITY OF M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTELD. ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
III. Event Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 APR 103 Predicted 04 APR-06 APR 110/115/122 90 Day Mean 03 APR 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR 007/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR 015/020-012/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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