Viewing archive of Friday, 19 March 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 MAR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. REGION 8485 (N22W78)
HAS QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. LIMB
PROXIMITY INHIBITS A THOROUGH ANALYSIS, BUT IT APPEARS NOW AS A
SIMPLE BETA GROUP IN DECAY. A PROMINENCE ERUPTED FROM THE SE LIMB
AROUND 19/1620Z. SPACE-BASED IMAGERY INDICATE A CORONAL MASS
EJECTION OCCURRED WITH THE ERUPTION, BUT MATERIAL DOES NOT APPEAR
EARTHBOUND. FIVE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY - REGIONS 8492
(S27W46), 8493 (N19W22), 8494 (S22E15), 8495 (S21E61), AND 8496
(S11W03). REGION 8493 APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST ACTIVITY POTENTIAL
OF THESE NEW REGIONS AS IT QUICKLY DEVELOPED INTO A C CLASS GROUP
WITH OVER 20 SPOTS VISIBLE IN WHITE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
WAS NOTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FROM REGION 8485 AS IT
ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS DIMINISHING AS
THE REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
| Class M | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 MAR 139 Predicted 20 MAR-22 MAR 135/130/135 90 Day Mean 19 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAR 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAR 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAR-22 MAR 008/008-008/007-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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