Viewing archive of Monday, 15 February 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 FEB 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8456 (N22W37), 8457 (N15W18), 8458 (S22W09), 8462 (N19W06), AND 8464 (N20E28). MOST REGIONS ARE EITHER SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY/SIMPLIFICATION OR HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. THE MOST COMPLEX AREAS APPEAR TO BE REGIONS 8457, 8458, AND 8462.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS INCLUDING 8456, 8457, 8458, 8459, 8462, AND 8464. REGIONS 8457, 8458, AND 8462 ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND INFORMATION FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 FEB to 18 FEB
Class M 50%40%30%
Class X 05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 FEB 190
  Predicted    16 FEB-18 FEB  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        15 FEB 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 FEB  005/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 FEB  012/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 FEB-18 FEB  010/010-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 FEB to 18 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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