Viewing archive of Monday, 15 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN
REGIONS 8456 (N22W37), 8457 (N15W18), 8458 (S22W09), 8462 (N19W06),
AND 8464 (N20E28). MOST REGIONS ARE EITHER SHOWING SIGNS OF
DECAY/SIMPLIFICATION OR HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. THE MOST COMPLEX AREAS
APPEAR TO BE REGIONS 8457, 8458, AND 8462.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS
INCLUDING 8456, 8457, 8458, 8459, 8462, AND 8464. REGIONS 8457,
8458, AND 8462 ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND INFORMATION FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT SUGGESTS
THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 FEB to 18 FEB
| Class M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 FEB 190 Predicted 16 FEB-18 FEB 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 15 FEB 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 FEB 005/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 FEB 012/011 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 FEB-18 FEB 010/010-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 FEB to 18 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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