Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 February 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 FEB 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED IN REGION 8462 (N21E21), THE LARGEST BEING A C9/SN AT 13/1611UT. THIS REGION IS A FAIRLY SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP TO THE NORTHEAST OF LARGE GROUP 8457 (N15E10). REGION 8457 CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE LIGHT AREA BUT DID NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLARES. REGION 8458 (S22E16), THE OTHER LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK, HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED IN REGION 8456 (N23W09). NEW REGION 8465 (S33W60) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8456, 8457, 8458, AND 8462. REGIONS 8457 AND 8462 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE SINCE 13/1200UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 14 FEB to 16 FEB
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 FEB 198
  Predicted   14 FEB-16 FEB  200/205/210
  90 Day Mean        13 FEB 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 FEB  015/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 FEB  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 FEB-16 FEB  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 FEB to 16 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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