Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 December 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8421 (N26W14) PRODUCED ALL OF TODAY'S FLARES, INCLUDING THE ONLY M-CLASS EVENT: AN M1/SF AT 0546Z. THE GROUP SHOWED SLOW GROWTH TODAY, PRIMARILY BY MEANS OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE LEADER PART OF THE GROUP INTO A SINGLE, LARGE PENUMBRAL REGION. THE REGION PRODUCED FREQUENT SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, 7 OF WHICH WERE LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE STORAGE OF NON-POTENTIAL MAGNETIC ENERGY IN THE REGION IS PROMPTLY DISSIPATED BY THESE FREQUENT SMALL EVENTS. REGION 8419 (N26W65) DECREASED SLOWLY TODAY AND WAS VERY STABLE. NEW REGION 8425 (S26E50) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AND IS A SIMPLE, SMALL, BIPOLAR SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8421 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ANY M-CLASS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM THIS REGION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE FIRST THREE HOURS OF THE REPORTING PERIOD BEGAN WITH MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS REPORTING ACTIVE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS CALMED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 0000-0700Z WITH ACTIVITY ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN QUIET AND UNSETTLED. SINCE 0700Z, HOWEVER, THE FIELD HAS BEEN VERY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. AN EXAMINATION OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT BZ SHOWED A NORTHWARD TURNING OF THE FIELD TO ABOUT +5 NT AT 0500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO EFFECTS FROM A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE SECOND DAY, BUT QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 31 DEC to 02 JAN
Class M65%65%65%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 DEC 179
  Predicted   31 DEC-02 JAN  172/165/160
  90 Day Mean        30 DEC 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 DEC  010/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 DEC  004/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 DEC-02 JAN  010/010-007/010-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 DEC to 02 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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