Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 December 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 DEC 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S ACTIVITY WAS CHARACTERIZED BY OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C7/SF FROM REGION 8419 (N27W27) AT 26/2344Z. REGION 8419 GREW CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS; THE PENUMBRA IN THE GROUP HAS DEVELOPED AND MATURED AND OBSERVATIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE REGION. REGION 8421 (N27E26) SHOWED A LITTLE GROWTH AND OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES DURING THE DAY. REGION 8422 (S23E38) PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES BUT WAS ESSENTIALLY STABLE. BACKGROUND FLUX LEVELS FOR X-RAYS AND 10.7 CM INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GROWTH OF REGION 8419.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGIONS 8419 AND 8421. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE WERE SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 26/2100UT AND 27/0000UT, BUT THE FIELD HAS BEEN VERY QUIET FROM THE START OF THE UT DAY (27/0000UT) TO THE END OF THE PERIOD (27/2100UT).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 DEC to 30 DEC
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 DEC 167
  Predicted   28 DEC-30 DEC  165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        27 DEC 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 DEC  012/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 DEC  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 DEC-30 DEC  005/009-010/011-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 DEC to 30 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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