Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 December 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 DEC 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8416 (N19E46) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 22/1833Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED SLOW DECAY DURING THE
PERIOD. REGION 8415 (N20E12) PRODUCED SMALL SUBFLARES AND CONTINUED
TO SLOWLY DECAY AND SIMPLIFY. THE FILAMENT IN REGION 8414 (N26W23)
GREW SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PERIOD AND AT TIMES SHOWED STRONG
MOTION. RECENT X-RAY IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ENHANCED AREA OVER THE
NORTHEAST LIMB WHERE SEVERAL REGIONS ARE DUE TO RETURN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8415 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. THE REGIONS RETURNING TO THE
EAST LIMB COULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF C-CLASS EVENTS. BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THEIR FLARE POTENTIAL MUST AWAIT THEIR APPEARANCE ONTO
THE VISIBLE DISK. THE FILAMENT IN REGION 8414 IS EXPECTED TO ERUPT
SOMETIME PRIOR TO WEST LIMB TRANSIT. IF IT DOES, A LONG DURATION
X-RAY EVENT AND LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE HALO
CORONAL MASS EJECTION ON 18 DEC FAILED TO MATERIALIZE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 23 DEC to 25 DEC
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 DEC 129 Predicted 23 DEC-25 DEC 132/135/137 90 Day Mean 22 DEC 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 DEC 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 DEC 005/011 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 DEC-25 DEC 008/012-008/009-008/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 DEC to 25 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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