Viewing archive of Friday, 4 December 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 DEC 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. FOUR MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED, TWO UNCORRELATED, AND ONE EACH FROM REGIONS 8402 (N17E30)
AND 8399 (N20W40). OF THE SEVEN ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK,
8402 AND 8395 REMAIN THE MOST COMPLEX. REGION 8402 HAS GROWN
SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS CURRENTLY A 22-SPOT 'FSO' GROUP,
WITH A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION AS REPORTED BY THE
MT. WILSON OBSERVATORY. REGION 8395 (N20W40) HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
STABLE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS NOW AN 11-SPOT 'FSO' GROUP,
WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION BY MT. WILSON. NEW REGION
8403 (N20E37), A SMALL 'HSX' ALPHA GROUP WAS NUMBERED LATE
YESTERDAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE, WITH THE CONTINUED LIKLIHOOD OF C-CLASS, AND
POSSIBILITY OF M-CLASS, EVENTS FROM REGIONS 8395 AND 8402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 05 DEC to 07 DEC
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 DEC 148 Predicted 05 DEC-07 DEC 147/146/145 90 Day Mean 04 DEC 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 DEC 007/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 DEC 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 DEC-07 DEC 010/010-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 DEC to 07 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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