Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 November 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8383 (S14W43) PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT: A C4/SF AT 16/2153Z. ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS EVENTS TODAY WERE A C4 AT 16/2316Z, AND A C2 THAT LASTED 92 MINUTES FROM 0351-0523Z. REGION 8384 (S27W23) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS STABLE. TWO FILAMENT ERUPTIONS WERE NOTED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS: A 12 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N31E20 BETWEEN 16/1842-17/0643Z AND AN 11 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S41W50 BETWEEN 17/1723-17/1857Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS ATTAINED HIGH FLUX LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE, BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE SECOND DAY, WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE INCREASE IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 NOV 121
  Predicted   18 NOV-20 NOV  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        17 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV  025/030-025/035-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%15%
Minor storm20%20%05%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active55%55%20%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

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