Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 8389 (S19W44).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GT 100 MEV PROTON
EVENT ENDED AT 14/1645Z WITH A MAXIMUM OF 6.1 PFU OBSERVED AT
14/0950Z. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON EVENT REMAINS IN PROGRESS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ON THE THIRD DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO A RECURRENT PATTERN OF A
NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 NOV 126 Predicted 16 NOV-18 NOV 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 15 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV 021/038 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV 010/010-010/012-015/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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