Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 November 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8375 (N19W62) PRODUCED AN M2/1N FLARE AT 1712UT. REGION 8383 (S14E76) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SEVERE STORM. THE CME REPORTED ON 5 NOV ARRIVED AT AND INTERACTED WITH THE EARTH'S MAGNETOSPHERE, CAUSING SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE 06-09UT PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTONS CLIMBED PAST THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD FOR APPROXIMATELY 25 MINUTES STARTING AT 08/0245UT. THEY HAVE DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS SINCE THAT TIME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 09 NOV to 11 NOV
Class M 75%75%50%
Class X 50%50%20%
Proton25%25%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 NOV 153
  Predicted    09 NOV-11 NOV  150/155/150
  90 Day Mean        08 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 NOV  013/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV  018/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV  025/030-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 NOV to 11 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%15%
Minor storm 15%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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