Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
M2 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 07/1106UT. A NEW SUNSPOT GROUP WAS
NUMBERED AS REGION 8382 (N18W32) TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM. THE CME REPORTED ON
04/0418UT IMPACTED THE MAGNETOSPHERE AND CAUSED ACTIVE AND MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS TODAY. THE LEVEL OF GT 10 MEV PROTONS WAS
ELEVATED, BUT DID NOT CROSS THE GT 10 PFU THRESHOLD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 08 NOV to 10 NOV
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 NOV 149 Predicted 08 NOV-10 NOV 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 07 NOV 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 NOV 017/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV 018/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV 040/035-025/025-025/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 NOV to 10 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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