Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 October 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8361 (N15W79) CONTINUES TO PRODUCE C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED IN REGION 8358 (N17W93).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED IN REGION 8361. A SMALL M-CLASS FLARE FROM THIS ACTIVE REGION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM ACTIVE TO QUIET. THE 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
III. Event Probabilities 21 OCT to 23 OCT
Class M15%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 OCT 121
  Predicted   21 OCT-23 OCT  120/118/115
  90 Day Mean        20 OCT 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 OCT  027/052
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT  010/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT  015/015-015/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 OCT to 23 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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