Viewing archive of Friday, 9 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
WHICH WERE NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED, A C1 AT 09/0753Z AND A C1 AT
09/1005Z. REGION 8355 (S22E37) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 09/1330Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
HOWEVER THE REGIONS PRESENT ON THE VISIBLE DISK DO HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 10 OCT to 12 OCT
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 OCT 124 Predicted 10 OCT-12 OCT 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 09 OCT 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 OCT 014/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 OCT 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 OCT-12 OCT 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 OCT to 12 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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