Viewing archive of Friday, 9 October 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED WHICH WERE NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED, A C1 AT 09/0753Z AND A C1 AT 09/1005Z. REGION 8355 (S22E37) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 09/1330Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, HOWEVER THE REGIONS PRESENT ON THE VISIBLE DISK DO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 10 OCT to 12 OCT
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 OCT 124
  Predicted   10 OCT-12 OCT  125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        09 OCT 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 OCT  014/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 OCT  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 OCT-12 OCT  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 OCT to 12 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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