Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 October 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8355 (S21E64) DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY. SEVEN C-CLASS AND TWO M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED. AN M1/1N OCCURRED AT 07/1247Z AND A M2/SF AT 07/1712Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS PREVENTING AN ACCURATE ANALYSIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST A STRONG MAGNETIC GRADIENT EXISTS AND A DELTA CONFIGURATION LIKELY EXIST IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THIS REGION. REGION 8350 (N19E02) CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MINOR SUBFLARING BUT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TWO REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8354 (S18E00), AND REGION 8355 (S21E64).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8355 IS STILL DEVELOPING. FURTHER M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AND IF GROWTH CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT RATE, X-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. SOLAR WIND SPEED HAS BEEN ON A STEADY INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY'S SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT L1 AT 06/1530Z. BZ FINALLY WENT SOUTHWARD AROUND 07/10Z AND ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE PRESENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III. Event Probabilities 08 OCT to 10 OCT
Class M65%65%65%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 OCT 124
  Predicted   08 OCT-10 OCT  130/135/138
  90 Day Mean        07 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 OCT  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 OCT  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 OCT-10 OCT  015/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 OCT to 10 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%10%10%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%15%08%
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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