Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 September 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS WITH TWO M-CLASS FLARES DETECTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OCCURRED AT 03/0421Z AND WAS LINKED (VIA YOHKOH SXT OBSERVATIONS) TO NEW REGION 8326 (N19E73) BY VIRTUE OF A BRIGHT LOOP STRUCTURE SEEN ABOVE THE REGION FOLLOWING THE FLARE. A LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM WAS ALSO OBSERVED ABOVE THIS REGION LATER IN THE DAY FOLLOWING A SUBFAINT FLARE. NEW REGION 8326 APPEARS TO BE THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8299, WHICH PRODUCED ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES DURING ITS PREVIOUS ROTATION. THE SECOND WAS A LONG-DURATION M1/SF FROM REGION 8323 (S22E03) AT 03/1608Z. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A LONG-DURATION C3/SF FLARE AT 03/1430Z ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AND MINOR DISCRETE RADIO EMISSIONS. REGION 8323 REMAINED LARGE WITH MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS IT BEGAN CROSSING INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. NEW REGION 8327 (N30E78) WAS ALSO NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8323 AND 8326. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8323. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS REPORTED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST DAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS ON THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 04 SEP to 06 SEP
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 SEP 163
  Predicted   04 SEP-06 SEP  160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        03 SEP 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 SEP  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP  012/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 SEP to 06 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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