SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. TWO X LEVEL (1.2 AT 17/2120UT AND 2.8 AT 18/0818UT)AND ONE M LEVEL (1.5 AT 18/0414UT) X-RAY EVENTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THEY ARE BEING ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 8307 (N30E77) WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE LIMB. OPTICAL AND X-RAY SENSORS HAVE SHOWN CORONAL LOOPS AND RAIN AS WELL AS ACTIVE SURGES AND BRIGHTENINGS. A SINGLE SPOT HAS COME OVER THE LIMB AT TIME OF ISSUE, BUT OF UNKNOWN TYPE. SUB-FAINT FLARES HAVE OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8297 (N32W80) AND 8299 (N16W69). A TYPE IV AND 10CM BURST WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X2.8 FLARE WHICH OCCURRED AT 0818UT. NO PARTICLE, PCA, OR GLE EVENTS HAVE TAKEN PLACE, AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. A CORONAL HOLE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN POLE TO ALMOST N30 IS BELIEVED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MERIDIAN AND INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION. THREE DSFS OCCURRED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SIZES AND LOCATIONS WERE 9 DEG AT S30E22 ENDING AT 17/2332, 15 DEG AT N44W38 ENDING AT 17/2332, AND 10 DEG AT S51E16 ENDING AT 18/1150. THESE COMBINED WITH AN EXPECTED HIGH SPEED STREAM ARE CAUSE FOR EXPECTING HIGHER GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGHER LATITUDES NEAR THE END OF THE DAY AND LATER IN THE PERIOD.

  Observed       18 AUG 133
  Predicted   19 AUG-21 AUG  140/140/145
  90 Day Mean        18 AUG 114

OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 AUG  001/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 AUG  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 AUG-21 AUG  010/015-015/020-020/020