Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 August 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 AUG 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C1
X-RAY EVENT AT 02/0513Z. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8292
(N24E04), A SMALL B-TYPE GROUP, 8293 (S20E70), A SMALL D-TYPE
GROUP, AND 8294, A SMALL B-TYPE GROUP. THERE ARE CURRENTLY TEN
ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, WITH A CUMULATIVE SUNSPOT COUNT
OF ONLY 16 TO 17.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 AUG 110 Predicted 03 AUG-05 AUG 108/108/106 90 Day Mean 02 AUG 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 AUG 017/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG 010/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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