Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES
OCCURRED. THE LARGEST WAS A B9/SF AT 28/0823Z IN REGION 8280
(S23W11). THE LARGEST, AND POSSIBLY MOST COMPLEX, SUNSPOT GROUP ON
THE VISIBLE DISK IS REGION 8282 (N31W09). THIS AREA HAS NOT PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE PAST DAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS LEVEL FLARE. MOST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN REGIONS 8280 AND 8282.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 29 JUL to 31 JUL
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 JUL 121 Predicted 29 JUL-31 JUL 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 28 JUL 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUL 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUL 006/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUL-31 JUL 010/010-010/012-010/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 JUL to 31 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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