Viewing archive of Monday, 27 July 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. A SINGLE B-CLASS X-RAY FLARE WAS DETECTED. REGIONS 8280 (S24E02) AND 8282 (N32E04) WERE STABLE. A WEAK DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION PERSISTED WITHIN REGION 8282. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8283 (N27E68), 8284 (N27W24), 8285 (S23E18), AND 8286 (N18E54). ALL OF THE NEW REGIONS WERE SMALL AND MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8282. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON THE FINAL DAY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THE SECOND DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 28 JUL to 30 JUL
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 JUL 120
  Predicted    28 JUL-30 JUL  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        27 JUL 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUL  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUL  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUL-30 JUL  007/010-007/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JUL to 30 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%40%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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