Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. REGION
8280 (S24E14) REMAINED A MODERATE-SIZED, STABLE H-TYPE AND PRODUCED
A COUPLE B-CLASS SUBFLARES. A WEAK MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION
PERSISTED WITHIN REGION 8282 (N32E16), BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
SIZE OR STRUCTURE WERE OBSERVED. THIS REGION HAS BEEN STABLE FOR THE
LAST TWO DAYS. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM
REGION 8282.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE PERIODS DETECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH 28 JULY,
THEN DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS ON THE LAST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 JUL 119 Predicted 27 JUL-29 JUL 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 26 JUL 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUL 010/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL 006/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL 007/007-007/010-007/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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