Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 July 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 JUL 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8280 (S21E64) PRODUCED
THREE C-CLASS FLARES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS
A C6 AT 0503UT. THIS GROUP IS CLASSIFIED AS AN EKO BETA AND IS THE
LARGEST SUNSPOT REGION ON THE DISK WITH AN AREA OF 370 MILLIONTHS.
REGION 8279 (N27E19) HAS DEVELOPED PENUMBRA ON BOTH LEADER AND
TRAILER PORTIONS OF THE GROUP. REGION 8277 (S14W55) APPEARS TO HAVE
STOPPED ITS INITIAL GROWTH PHASE AND WAS STABLE. NEW REGION 8282
NEAR N23E70 ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY. A 6 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S40W31
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 1003Z AND 1028Z TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
BUT THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGION 8280, 8277, OR 8279.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS SOME HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS BETWEEN 14-18Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 23 JUL to 25 JUL
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 JUL 114 Predicted 23 JUL-25 JUL 115/115/112 90 Day Mean 22 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL 011/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL 010/008-005/007-010/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 JUL to 25 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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