Viewing archive of Friday, 12 June 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JUN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8240 (S24W82) PRODUCED
MOST OF TODAY'S OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION SHOWED BRIGHT
H-ALPHA PLAGE AND SOME INDICATIONS OF GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. NEW REGION 8243 (N18E75) ROTATED PARTIALLY INTO VIEW TODAY AS
A SINGLE SPOT WITH PENUMBRA.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8240 OR 8243.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF
SUBSTORM PERIOD FROM 04-06Z. THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY FROM 04-06Z
RESULTED IN ACTIVE LEVELS AT MID-LATITUDE AND MINOR STORM LEVELS AT
HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JUN to 15 JUN
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 JUN 112 Predicted 13 JUN-15 JUN 110/110/115 90 Day Mean 12 JUN 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUN 007/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUN 009/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUN-15 JUN 010/010-005/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JUN to 15 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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