Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 June 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 JUN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED,
MODERATE DURATION C1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 03/0303Z. REGION 8232
(S19E63) SHOWED ITSELF AS A MODERATE SIZE C GROUP WITH DIFFUSE
PLAGE. REGION 8230 (S20E10) STABILIZED. NEW REGION 8233 (N28E64)
EMERGED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED FREQUENT SUBFLARES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL LARGE FILAMENTS ARE VISIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND
TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8230,
8232, AND 8233.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED DURING THE PERIOD FROM APPROXIMATELY 400 KM/S TO OVER 500
KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 05-06 JUN.
III. Event Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 JUN 113 Predicted 04 JUN-06 JUN 119/120/120 90 Day Mean 03 JUN 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN 010/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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