Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 May 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. ALL THREE ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8218 (S20W70), 8220 (S27W07), AND 8222 (N23W04), HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, WITH C-CLASS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FROM EITHER REGION 8218 OR 8222. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 MAY 110
  Predicted    18 MAY-20 MAY  108/105/100
  90 Day Mean        17 MAY 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY  010(ESTIMATED)/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY  010/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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