Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 May 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8218 (S21W57) PRODUCED A C2/SF FLARE AT 16/0157Z. REGION 8222 (N22E22) ALSO PRODUCED SMALL FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE IN REGION 8218. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 MAY 118
  Predicted    17 MAY-19 MAY  120/118/115
  90 Day Mean        16 MAY 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY  010/010-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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