Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 May 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8218 (S21W57) PRODUCED A C2/SF FLARE AT 16/0157Z. REGION 8222 (N22E22) ALSO PRODUCED SMALL FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE IN REGION 8218. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 MAY 118
  Predicted   17 MAY-19 MAY  120/118/115
  90 Day Mean        16 MAY 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY  010/010-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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