Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 April 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8210 (S17E56), NOW A CKO SPOT GROUP, MAINTAINED ITS SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND WAS RELATIVELY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8210 STILL HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A SMALL CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARING. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM AT MID LATITUDES AND MOSTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES. SPACE-BASED SENSORS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS CORONAL HOLE ASSOCIATED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. HIGH LATITUDES WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 27 APR to 29 APR
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 APR 091
  Predicted    27 APR-29 APR  092/094/094
  90 Day Mean        26 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 APR  013/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 APR  020/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 APR-29 APR  010/018-010/015-005/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 APR to 29 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm 15%10%05%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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