Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 April 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8205 (N21W66) PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR B-CLASS X-RAY SUBFLARES. THIS REGION DOUBLED IN WHITE LIGHT AREA SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN OVERALL COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 8208 (N18E57), A SINGLE AXX SPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 20/1130Z, IS STILL IN PROGRESS. THE EVENT CONTINUES TO DECLINE AND IS CURRENTLY AT 220 PFU. THE GREATER THAT 100 MEV EVENT ENDED AT 22/0430Z. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION DURING THIS EVENT REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 13 DB AT 21/1200Z AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS AT 3.2DB.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN EXTENSION TO THE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION. THE PROTON EVENT IN PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO END TOMORROW.
III. Event Probabilities 23 APR to 25 APR
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 APR 088
  Predicted   23 APR-25 APR  086/084/084
  90 Day Mean        22 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 APR  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 APR  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 APR-25 APR  012/015-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 APR to 25 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%40%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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