Viewing archive of Friday, 10 April 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES CONTINUE FROM A VARIETY OF ACTIVE REGIONS. THE LARGEST OF THESE, WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OPTICAL REPORT, WAS A C1/SF AT 10/1102Z IN REGION 8199 (S28W42). GROWTH IN REGION 8200 (S22W07) IS SLOWING AS THE REGION MATURES INTO A SMALL D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8193 (S23W38), 8194 (S17E10), 8195 (S25E18), 8198 (S28E36), 8199 (S28W42), AND 8200 (S22W07). ALL OF THESE REGIONS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SEVERAL STATIONS DURING THE 10/1500-1800UT PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 11 APR to 13 APR
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 APR 130
  Predicted   11 APR-13 APR  128/126/126
  90 Day Mean        10 APR 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 APR  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 APR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 APR-13 APR  010/010-010/013-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 APR to 13 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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