Viewing archive of Friday, 10 April 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 APR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES
CONTINUE FROM A VARIETY OF ACTIVE REGIONS. THE LARGEST OF THESE,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OPTICAL REPORT, WAS A C1/SF AT 10/1102Z
IN REGION 8199 (S28W42). GROWTH IN REGION 8200 (S22W07) IS SLOWING
AS THE REGION MATURES INTO A SMALL D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8193 (S23W38),
8194 (S17E10), 8195 (S25E18), 8198 (S28E36), 8199 (S28W42), AND 8200
(S22W07). ALL OF THESE REGIONS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT SEVERAL STATIONS DURING THE 10/1500-1800UT PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 11 APR to 13 APR
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 APR 130 Predicted 11 APR-13 APR 128/126/126 90 Day Mean 10 APR 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 APR 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 APR 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 APR-13 APR 010/010-010/013-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 APR to 13 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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