Viewing archive of Friday, 27 March 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 LONG DURATION EVENT WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 27/0046Z. GROUND AND SPACE BASED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE REGION 8188 (N30E30) AS THE SOURCE REGION. A CME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE DISK WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. REGION 8185 (S25W03) ALSO PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 27/1603Z. SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED RADIO BURSTS AND SWEEPS ALSO OCCURRED INCLUDING A 610MHZ, 2700SFU BURST AT 27/1454Z. NEW REGION 8189 (S27W17) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 27/1323Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGION 8185 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 28 MAR to 30 MAR
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 MAR 108
  Predicted    28 MAR-30 MAR  108/105/105
  90 Day Mean        27 MAR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAR  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAR  014/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAR-30 MAR  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 MAR to 30 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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