Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 March 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8179 (S22W30) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST BEING A C3/1F AT 17/1329Z. THIS REGION HAS LOST MORE OF ITS MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY BUT MAINTAINS A LARGE E-TYPE BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION WITH 44 SUNSPOTS COVERING 780 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT SUBFLARES AND PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS WERE OBSERVED AND NUMEROUS MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND SWEEPS WERE DETECTED. A FAINT, PARTIAL HALO/CME WAS OBSERVED AT APPROXIMATELY 17/1500Z OFF THE SW LIMB, PROBABLY A RESULT OF THIS MORNING'S C3/1F FLARE. A LARGE, 23 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING THE INTERVAL 16/2204-17/1147Z FROM THE SE LIMB. ALL REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8179, ALTHOUGH SHOWING SLIGHT DECAY, STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY 2 AS A RESULT OF THE M1/1B HALO/CME ON 15/1900Z.
III. Event Probabilities 18 MAR to 20 MAR
Class M35%35%30%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 MAR 126
  Predicted   18 MAR-20 MAR  122/120/118
  90 Day Mean        17 MAR 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAR  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR  010/010-015/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 MAR to 20 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%20%
Minor storm05%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%40%30%
Minor storm05%25%20%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

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