Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 March 1998

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8179 (S22W04) PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 15/1616Z. AN M1/1B FLARE ERUPTED AT 15/1911Z. MINOR RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS FLARE INCLUDING AN 860 F.U. BURST ON 410 MHZ. FREQUENT C-CLASS SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. X-RAY BASELINE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY INCREASE, EXCEEDING C-CLASS SINCE 15/1430Z. REGION 8179 CONTINUED ITS IMPRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT AND IS NOW A 45 SPOT, E-TYPE GROUP WITH 670 MILLIONTHS OF AREAL COVERAGE. OBSERVATORIES REPORTED MAJOR GROWTH IN PENUMBRA ON LEADER AND TRAILER SPOTS. A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION DEVELOPED AT MID PERIOD. REPORTS INDICATE MAGNETIC GRADIENTS ARE STILL FAIRLY WEAK EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DELTA. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE. REGION 8179 IS LARGE AND COMPLEX AND IS STILL DEVELOPING. CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AND IF MAGNETIC GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN, X-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL 15/0200Z WHEN ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING CONDITIONS DEVELOPED. THE DISTURBANCE ENDED AT APPROXIMATELY 15/0900Z AND THE FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED SINCE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX DROPPED BELOW HIGH LEVELS AT 15/0306Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
Class M 50%50%45%
Class X 15%15%10%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 MAR 133
  Predicted    16 MAR-18 MAR  126/124/122
  90 Day Mean        15 MAR 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAR  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR  019/019
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR  010/012-010/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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