Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. REGION 8124 (S20W23)
PRODUCED MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. MINOR MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINED IN
THIS REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN
M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8124.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD CONTINUED AT A QUIET LEVEL.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET ON 29 DEC. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON 30-31 DEC IN RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION OBSERVED ON 26 DEC.
III. Event Probabilities 29 DEC to 31 DEC
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 DEC 102 Predicted 29 DEC-31 DEC 102/103/105 90 Day Mean 28 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 DEC 000/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 DEC 001/002 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 DEC-31 DEC 005/005-010/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 DEC to 31 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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