Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N20E58) PRODUCED A
C2/SF FLARE AT 15/0142Z. THIS REGION HAS GROWN INTO AN EAO SPOT
GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. AN UNCORRELATED C1
X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 15/1041Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PEIOD. REGION 8108 HAS A DECENT CHANCE
OF CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS
ACTIVITY, AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SMALL X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
DAY THREE MAY BRING OCCASIONAL ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES AND
MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS AT MID LATITUDES AS THE RESULT OF CME
REPORTED ON 14TH.
III. Event Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 NOV 096 Predicted 16 NOV-18 NOV 098/098/098 90 Day Mean 15 NOV 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV 008/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV 005/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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