Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 November 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N20E58) PRODUCED A C2/SF FLARE AT 15/0142Z. THIS REGION HAS GROWN INTO AN EAO SPOT GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. AN UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 15/1041Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PEIOD. REGION 8108 HAS A DECENT CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY, AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SMALL X-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DAY THREE MAY BRING OCCASIONAL ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES AND MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS AT MID LATITUDES AS THE RESULT OF CME REPORTED ON 14TH.
III. Event Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
Class M10%15%15%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 NOV 096
  Predicted   16 NOV-18 NOV  098/098/098
  90 Day Mean        15 NOV 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV  008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV  005/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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