Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 September 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8088 (S28E11) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M5/1B AT 24/0248Z WITH STRONG TYPE II AND IV SWEEP EVENTS. THE TYPE IV WAS OBSERVED FROM 24/0248-0615Z. THE 2695 MHZ BURST WITH THIS EVENT WAS 650 F.U. REGION 8088 ALSO PRODUCED AN M3/SF AT 24/1106Z WITH A STRONG TYPE II AND MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE IV. MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A C8/1N AT 24/1834Z WITH A WEAK TYPE II. REGION 8088 ALSO PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C1.5 EVENT FROM 23/2136-2350Z. CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AND VERY LARGE CORONAL MORETON WAVES WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS LONG DURATION EVENT AND THE M5 MENTIONED ABOVE. REGION 8088 CONTINUES TO GROW AT A SLOW TO MODERATE PACE AND IS NOW MAGNETICALLY CLASSIFIED AS A BETA-GAMMA REGION
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT A LOW TO MODERATE LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH REGION 8088 AS THE SOURCE REGION. OBVIOUSLY, THIS REGION IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MID-LEVEL M-CLASS EVENTS. STABILIZATION IN THIS REGION COULD RESULT IN AN ABRUPT HALT TO FLARE ACTIVITY DUE TO ITS SMALL TO MODERATE WHITE LIGHT AREA. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 25 SEP AND THE FIRST HALF OF 26 SEP. THE MASS EJECTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH ON LATE 26 SEP AND CONTINUE THROUGH 27 SEP. ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE STORM INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME, ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 25 SEP to 27 SEP
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 SEP 093
  Predicted   25 SEP-27 SEP  095/096/097
  90 Day Mean        24 SEP 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 SEP  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP  010/015-025/025-040/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 SEP to 27 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%40%30%
Minor storm05%15%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%40%30%
Minor storm10%20%35%
Major-severe storm01%10%20%

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