Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 September 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. A LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRED AT 20/1044Z FROM A C2 FLARE WHICH WAS UNCORRELATED OPTICALLY. REGION 8086 (N29W38) IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. C-CLASS FLARING IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8086. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 21 SEP to 23 SEP
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 SEP 088
  Predicted   21 SEP-23 SEP  086/084/086
  90 Day Mean        20 SEP 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 SEP  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 SEP  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 SEP-23 SEP  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 SEP to 23 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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