Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 May 1997

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8045 (N02W85) PRODUCED A C4/1F FLARE AT 0957UT. THIS GROUP SHOWED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AND BRIGHTNESS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES IN ADDITION TO THE 1F MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. NEW REGION 8047 (N26E70) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SIMPLE, STABLE BETA SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8046 (S26E14) WAS QUIET AND APPEARS TO BE IN DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARE FROM REGION 8045 AS IT CROSSES THE WEST LIMB. VERY LOW CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVIAL FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM 26/2100-27/0300Z. MOSTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH MINOR-MAJOR STORM PERIODS WERE OBSERVED BETWEEN 0300-0900Z. ACTIVITY ABRUPTLY CEASED AT 0900Z, AND THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE THEN. WIND DATA DID NOT SHOW AN OBVIOUS SOURCE, BUT INDICATED STEADY SOUTHWARD BZ, SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DENSITY, AND NOMINAL VELOCITIES. THUS THE SIGNATURE WOULD BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE PROPERTIES OF TRANSIENT PHENOMENA THAN WITH THOSE OF A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 MAY to 30 MAY
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 MAY 078
  Predicted   28 MAY-30 MAY  075/073/072
  90 Day Mean        27 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAY  009/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAY  015/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAY-30 MAY  010/015-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 MAY to 30 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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