Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGIONS 8041 (N04E24)
AND 8042 (N25E46) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. THESE REGIONS, ALONG WITH
REGION 8038 (N24W82) AND 8040 (N03E41), ARE SMALL, MAGNETICALLY
SIMPLE, AND QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID LATITUDES, AND
QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT 17/0600Z
AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 MAY 073 Predicted 18 MAY-20 MAY 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 17 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY 016/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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