Viewing archive of Monday, 12 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AT 12/0455Z, REGION 8038
(N21W19), A STABLE TWO SPOT 'HSX' GROUP, PRODUCED A LONG DURATION
C1/1F FLARE WITH AN ASSOCIATED DARK SURGE ON THE DISK AND TYPE II
AND TYPE IV SWEEPS. IN ADDITION, SOHO-LASCO INDICATED AN EARTH
DIRECTED CME CONNECTED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8038 REMAINS THE ONLY
ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 8038.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH ACTIVE
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON DAY THREE IN CONJUNCTION WITH TODAY'S FLARE AND
CME EVENTS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 MAY to 15 MAY
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 MAY 072 Predicted 13 MAY-15 MAY 073/074/074 90 Day Mean 12 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY 004/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY 010/010-015/012-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 MAY to 15 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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