Viewing archive of Friday, 2 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z THE DISK CONTINUED SPOTLESS AND SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED
VERY LOW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT MINOR STORM LEVELS. AFTER
02/0300Z, THE FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. SOLAR WIND
VELOCITY EXCEEDED 600 KM/S DURING THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BECAME HIGH NEAR 02/1630Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF 03 MAY
AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 04-05 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 03 MAY to 05 MAY
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 MAY 072 Predicted 03 MAY-05 MAY 072/072/073 90 Day Mean 02 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY 018/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY 012/012-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 MAY to 05 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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