Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 March 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Mar 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 MAR 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TODAY'S ONLY EVENT OF NOTE
WAS A LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT OBSERVED BY THE GOES SATELLITES: A
GRADUAL RISE IN X-RAYS BEGAN AT 0340Z, REACHED A MAXIMUM OF B3 AT
0633Z AND DECLINED TO HALF-POWER BY 0945Z. THERE WERE NO IMAGE
OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO PINPOINT THE SOURCE OF THIS EVENT. REGION
8020 (N06E32) WAS A STABLE CAO BIPOLAR REGION AND REGION 8021
(S29E30) WAS A SIMPLE, STABLE BXO GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BECOMING UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE ON THE SECOND DAY, AND RETURNING TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED BY THE
THIRD DAY. THE INCREASE IS EXPECTED BECAUSE A SMALL CORONAL HOLE
WILL BE ROTATING INTO FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Event Probabilities 10 MAR to 12 MAR
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 MAR 075 Predicted 10 MAR-12 MAR 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 09 MAR 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAR 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAR 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAR-12 MAR 010/010-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 MAR to 12 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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