Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 November 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 NOV 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 7997 (N08E50), A THREE
SPOT 'BXO' BETA GROUP, AND 7998 (S14E46), A TWO SPOT 'AXX'
ALPHA GROUP. WITH THESE TWO NEW REGIONS, THERE ARE CURRENTLY
FOUR ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK. YESTERDAY'S
CARRYOVER REGIONS, 7995 (S00E05) AND 7996 (N31E05), ARE BOTH
STABLE AS TWO SPOT 'AXX' ALPHA GROUPS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL
16/0600-0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
ACTIVITY INCREASING TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON DAYS TWO AND
THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 17 NOV to 19 NOV
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 NOV 074 Predicted 17 NOV-19 NOV 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 16 NOV 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV 013/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV 006/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV 010/010-015/020-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 NOV to 19 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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