Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 September 1996

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 SEP 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINED SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED BETWEEN QUIET AND MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS BETWEEN 22/0600-0900Z. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A CORONAL HOLE STREAM REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EARTH. THE NORTHERN POLAR HOLE IS THE PROBABLE SOURCE OF THIS STREAM THAT BEGAN AROUND 10 SEP. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WERE PREDOMINANTLY HIGH AND APPROACHED VERY HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 SEP  069
  Predicted   23 SEP-25 SEP  069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        22 SEP  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 21 SEP  024/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP  021/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP  018/015-018/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%

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