Solar activity was moderate for the past 24 hours. Region 691 (N14W40) produced two M-class flares: an M1 at 0226 UT and an M2/Sf at 0532 UT. The M2 was accompanied by type II and type IV radio sweeps. Newly received LASCO data for 30 October indicated a nearly full halo CME after yesterday's M5 x-ray event: the CME is first visible in C2 at 30/1654 UTC and has plane-of sky velocity of about 700-800 km/s. The CME is not symmetric and most of the material appears to be moving away from the southwest limb. Region 691 has become somewhat quieter in the last 24 hours. The leader spots show slight decline, but the trailer spots have been growing. Region 693 (S16E20) showed growth during the past 24 hours, with the emergence of spots in the middle portion of the group, but the region only managed to produce one C-class flare.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a slight chance for major flare activity. Region 691 is the main threat for moderate or higher activity levels, although Region 693 might also contribute. There is also a slight chance for a proton event from Region 691, given its favorable location on the disk.

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. The > 10 MeV proton enhancement that began yesterday reached a maximum of 2.5 PFU at 30/2150 UTC and has been steadily declining since then.

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels until sometime around mid-day tomorrow (01 November) when transient flow from the energetic solar events of 30 October are expected to arrive at Earth. Active conditions with some periods of minor storm levels are expected to follow and persist for 24-36 hours. Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled to active levels on the third day (03 November).

  Beobachtet       31 Oct 139
  Vorhergesagt   01 Nov-03 Nov  140/140/135
  90 Tage Mittel        31 Oct 107

  Beobachtet Afr/Ap 30 Oct  010/017
  Geschätzt     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/010
  Vorhergesagt    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  020/025-020/030-015/020