Archiv von Donnerstag 08 November 2001 anzeigen

Solar-Aktivitätsbericht

Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 2001 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.com

Gemeinsame Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität

SDF Nummer 312 ausgestellt am 08 Nov 2001 um 2200 Uhr UTC

IA. Die Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken Gruppen und Aktivität vom 07. 2100 Uhr auf 08. 2100 Uhr des Monats

Activity remained at high levels. Region 9687 (S19W18) produced an impulsive M9/1n flare at 08/0704 UTC associated with a 460 SFU Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (est. velocity 818 km/sec). It also produced an impulsive C8/Sn flare at 08/1904 UTC, possibly associated with Type II (est. velocity 928 km/sec) and Type IV radio sweeps. This region showed no significant changes prior to or following the major flare, but it remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity, mainly due to the presence of a small delta magnetic configuration within its interior spots. Region 9690 (S13E31) remained the most impressive sunspot group on the disk with an area exceeding 1000 millions of the visible disk. It produced occasional flares including three M-class, the largest of which was an M4/2f at 08/1535 UTC. This region continued to increase in spot count, area, and magnetic complexity with strong magnetic gradients and a magnetic delta configuration within its leader spots. Region 9684 (N06W82), which was responsible for the X1/3b flare on 04 November, began a relatively quiet west limb passage. The remaining regions were unimpressive in most respects. No new regions were assigned today.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Regions 9690 and 9687 have the potential for major flare production.
IIA. Geophysikalische Zusammenfassung der Aktivitäten des 07. 2100Uhr bis 08. 2100Uhr
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit continued. The greater than 10 MeV flux was 35 PFU and gradually decreasing at the close of the period. This event began at 04/1705 UTC and reached a maximum of 31,700 PFU at 06/0215 UTC. The polar cap absorption event that began on 04 November ended today.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first day increasing to quiet to active levels on the last two days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 09 November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare during the period.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 09 Nov bis 11 Nov
M-Klasse90%90%90%
X-Klasse30%30%30%
Protonensturm75%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Beobachtet       08 Nov 248
  Vorhergesagt   09 Nov-11 Nov  245/250/250
  90 Tage Mittel        08 Nov 210
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
  Beobachtet Afr/Ap 07 Nov  011/015
  Geschätzt     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  006/008
  Vorhergesagt    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  008/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 09 Nov bis 11 Nov
A. Mittlere Breiten
Aktiv25%40%40%
Geringer Sturm10%15%15%
Schwerwiegender Sturm05%05%05%
B. Hohe Breiten
Aktiv25%40%40%
Geringer Sturm10%15%15%
Schwerwiegender Sturm05%05%05%

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