Předpověď počasí ve vesmíru - diskuse

Vydáno: 2024 Apr 20 1230 UTC
Připraveno americkým ministerstvem obchodu, NOAA, střediskem pro předpověď vesmírného počasí a zpracováno na SpaceWeatherLive.com

Sluneční aktivita

24 h Shrnutí
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1.0 flare at 19/1306 UTC from Region 3647 (S13W08, Dac/beta-delta), which continued to show signs of separation of the shared penumbra between its principle spots. Region 3645 (S09W13, Dai/beta) underwent slight decay in its intermediate spot area and consolidation of the leader and trailing spots. Minor growth was observed in Region 3650 (S11E14, Cao/beta) while the remaining regions were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
Předpověď
Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels on 20-22 Apr. M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are expected, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk.

Energetické částice

24 h Shrnutí
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
Předpověď
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 20-22 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over 20-22 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk.

Solární bouře

24 h Shrnutí
Solar wind conditions were enhanced this period following the passage of a CME early on 19 Apr. Total field strength reached 18 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward until 19/1830 UTC with a peak of -17 nT observed. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of 549 km/s at 19/2235 UTC.
Předpověď
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 20-22 Apr due to CME activity (on 20 and 21 Apr) and negative polarity CH HSS influences (on 20-22 Apr).

Geoprostor

24 h Shrnutí
The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) storm levels this period following the passage of a CME early on 19 Apr.
Předpověď
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 20 Apr with waning CME effects and the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of active conditions are expected on 21 Apr due to continued CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from 16-18 Apr. Quiet and unsettled conditions are expected on 22 Apr with waning CH HSS influences.

Poslední zprávy

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Fakta o počasí ve vesmíru

Poslední X-záblesk28. 03. 2024X1.1
Poslední M-záblesk19. 04. 2024M1.0
Poslední geomagnetická bouře19. 04. 2024Kp7 (G3)
Dny bez skvrn
Poslední den bez skvrn08. 06. 2022
Průměrný měsíční počet slunečních skvrn
března 2024104.9 -19.8

Tento den v historii*

Sluneční erupce
12022X2.25
22022M7.29
32001M5.99
41998M1.96
52022M1.9
ApG
1200270G3
2201843G2
3201728G2
4201422G1
5201116G1
*od roku 1994

Sociální sítě