Viewing archive of lördag, 17 november 2012
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Nov 17 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 322 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Nov 2012IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C2
event observed at 17/1810Z from Region 1615 (N08W21), a simple Bxo group
with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1613 (S24W19) remained the
most magnetically complex (beta-gamma) of the nine spotted regions on
the visible disk, while Region 1614 (N15W07) remained the largest at 160
millionths. The general downward trend in active region complexity and
size continued today
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a slight chance for moderate activity through the period
(18-20 Nov).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind measured at the ACE
spacecraft began fluctuating between positive and negative sectors
around 17/0655Z, enventually settling into the positive sector after
17/1800Z. About an hour after the fluctuations began, wind speed began
rising from 390 km/s and reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at 17/1444Z.
Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 17/0746Z. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -4.7 nT at 17/0345Z. These observations were consistent with
the arrival of a weak positive coronal hole high speed stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached 3160
pfu.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods possible
for the next three days (18-20 Nov).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Nov till 20 Nov
| M-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 17 Nov 135 Prognoserat 18 Nov-20 Nov 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 120
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 17 Nov 006/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Nov till 20 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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